It looks like Jose Mourinho is on the brink at Chelsea, but there
must be some reasons why he hasn't been sacked yet. We look at five
reasons that might be given for Mourinho keeping his job.
1. There's the opportunity to create a dynasty
One of the reasons Manchester United shied away from Mourinho when their managerial position has been available in recent years is that they viewed him as too short-term. He has a history of short spells at his clubs, and even though the famed third-season theory in which his teams suddenly fall apart three years in doesn't actually hold up to much scrutiny, United wanted someone to stay for a long time (although after the failure of David Moyes, they required three years of stabilisation under Louis van Gaal), and didn't think Mourinho was that man. Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich and Chelsea had a different opinion, and viewed Mourinho as their own dynasty-builder, the man to stick around for years and create something more permanent.
Mourinho agreed, saying when he returned to the club in 2013: "With Financial Fair Play, and Chelsea wants to go in that direction, you also need stability. You cannot change manager and philosophy every few years."
And again, in January last year: "The club knows what it really wants. The basic thing is the club wants to win, but it also knows the direction it wants to go in. That's why I came back. Not just because I love Chelsea and want to be back -- I came because I believe in the project. I'm here to do my best and to beat the record. I have a four-year contract, so hopefully I'll beat the record."
This, after all, is the team and manager who won the Premier League only a few months ago and should earn Mourinho more patience than most. It's not an especially revolutionary statement to say that basically any other manager in charge of Chelsea, on this run and under these circumstances, would have been dismissed some time ago, but Mourinho is different. Abramovich wanted Mourinho to be his dynasty-maker, so to sack him now would mean starting from scratch. Patience might be a virtue that Abramovich could try out, for a change.
2. Is it more the players' fault?
There is a school of thought that suggests the role of the manager in football is overrated, that their influence is relatively limited and it's the players who win or lose games. Thus, you could make the argument that Chelsea's struggles this season are more to do with the men on the pitch than the man in the dugout.
Thibaut Courtois has been injured, Branislav Ivanovic's form has disappeared off a cliff, John Terry is showing the ravages of age quite emphatically, Nemanja Matic seems to be undergoing a crisis of confidence, Cesc Fabregas' influence has been on the wane for the better part of a year, Eden Hazard has been subdued, Diego Costa looks unfit.
Virtually none of Mourinho's key players are performing as they should be, and while it is the manager's job to motivate and organise these players, he cannot do everything.
Publicly, the players are behind Mourinho, but any public proclamations should be at least treated with suspicion, if not discounted completely. After all, no Chelsea player, when a microphone is placed in front of them and asked if Mourinho is still the man for the job, is going to say 'No, he's useless and we all hate him.' If the Chelsea squad are no longer playing for their manager it doesn't speak particularly well of Mourinho, but at the same time they don't speak particularly well of the players' professionalism either.
Of course Mourinho bears some responsibility for Chelsea's calamitous form this term, but not all of it.
3. The fans are still with him
Or at least some of them are. This might seem like a relatively insignificant thing, but it's not. Even during the surrender to Liverpool at the weekend, Mourinho's name was being sung from the stands, and a recent poll on fan site "We Ain't Got No History" ended with 75 percent of almost 6,000 respondents voting in their manager's favour.
Some Chelsea fans, usually with a heavy heart, have called for him to go, which is to be expected, but it seems that the majority are on his side for now. There is certainly something to be said for the will of the people to be taken into account.
4. Is there a suitable replacement available?
"Who's next?" is not a question that has troubled Abramovich greatly in the past, as he tended to sack a manager and then consider the consequences, but there is definitely a sense that he is running Chelsea a little more carefully these days. Therefore, the question of who would replace Mourinho is one to consider, and must be one of the factors in the Portuguese still being in his position. Few long-term replacements are available. The ideal scenario would be to appoint a safe pair of hands until this summer, when Pep Guardiola could be available, Antonio Conte might be willing to leave the Italy job after Euro 2016 or Diego Simeone may be tempted away from Atletico Madrid.
But who would take an interim position? In theory Carlo Ancelotti would be the safest pair of hands, but reports differ as to whether he would be willing to take a temporary role. Guus Hiddink is well-liked at Chelsea and has taken exactly this role before in 2009, but he did such a calamitous job with the Dutch national team over the past year that there must be doubts about his candidature, at least.
Beyond those two, who is free and available to drop everything -- and, crucially, be an improvement on Mourinho? Fabio Capello? Brendan Rodgers? Avram Grant again? Without Ancelotti, the pool of potential short-term replacements looks shallow.
5. The cost
There's a relatively pragmatic reason not to be too quick with the ax: Mourinho's contract. He signed a new four-year deal only in August, something that didn't look particularly like a risk at the time, but now would appear to be the major factor in dissuading Abramovich from pulling the trigger. Miguel Delaney reported last week that Mourinho would demand the deal be paid up in full should he be dismissed, meaning it would cost the club around £30 million to sack him, and that's not even factoring in his backroom staff, many of whom would surely leave too.
Chelsea aren't unfamiliar with paying off underperforming managers; Mourinho agreed a significant settlement on the three years remaining on his £6 million salary the first time around, Luiz Felipe Scolari got around £12 million when he went in 2009, a similar fee made its way to Andre Villas-Boas, Roberto Di Matteo was reportedly paid around £9 million after being dismissed. But even though Abramovich has shown little compunction in shelling out cash before, £30 million (and other reports put it even higher than that) is something else for a club still keen on their own self-sufficiency.
Even for someone like Abramovich, the figures involved mean he has to be absolutely certain his decision is correct before pulling the trigger.
1. There's the opportunity to create a dynasty
One of the reasons Manchester United shied away from Mourinho when their managerial position has been available in recent years is that they viewed him as too short-term. He has a history of short spells at his clubs, and even though the famed third-season theory in which his teams suddenly fall apart three years in doesn't actually hold up to much scrutiny, United wanted someone to stay for a long time (although after the failure of David Moyes, they required three years of stabilisation under Louis van Gaal), and didn't think Mourinho was that man. Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich and Chelsea had a different opinion, and viewed Mourinho as their own dynasty-builder, the man to stick around for years and create something more permanent.
Mourinho agreed, saying when he returned to the club in 2013: "With Financial Fair Play, and Chelsea wants to go in that direction, you also need stability. You cannot change manager and philosophy every few years."
And again, in January last year: "The club knows what it really wants. The basic thing is the club wants to win, but it also knows the direction it wants to go in. That's why I came back. Not just because I love Chelsea and want to be back -- I came because I believe in the project. I'm here to do my best and to beat the record. I have a four-year contract, so hopefully I'll beat the record."
This, after all, is the team and manager who won the Premier League only a few months ago and should earn Mourinho more patience than most. It's not an especially revolutionary statement to say that basically any other manager in charge of Chelsea, on this run and under these circumstances, would have been dismissed some time ago, but Mourinho is different. Abramovich wanted Mourinho to be his dynasty-maker, so to sack him now would mean starting from scratch. Patience might be a virtue that Abramovich could try out, for a change.
2. Is it more the players' fault?
There is a school of thought that suggests the role of the manager in football is overrated, that their influence is relatively limited and it's the players who win or lose games. Thus, you could make the argument that Chelsea's struggles this season are more to do with the men on the pitch than the man in the dugout.
Thibaut Courtois has been injured, Branislav Ivanovic's form has disappeared off a cliff, John Terry is showing the ravages of age quite emphatically, Nemanja Matic seems to be undergoing a crisis of confidence, Cesc Fabregas' influence has been on the wane for the better part of a year, Eden Hazard has been subdued, Diego Costa looks unfit.
Virtually none of Mourinho's key players are performing as they should be, and while it is the manager's job to motivate and organise these players, he cannot do everything.
Publicly, the players are behind Mourinho, but any public proclamations should be at least treated with suspicion, if not discounted completely. After all, no Chelsea player, when a microphone is placed in front of them and asked if Mourinho is still the man for the job, is going to say 'No, he's useless and we all hate him.' If the Chelsea squad are no longer playing for their manager it doesn't speak particularly well of Mourinho, but at the same time they don't speak particularly well of the players' professionalism either.
Of course Mourinho bears some responsibility for Chelsea's calamitous form this term, but not all of it.
3. The fans are still with him
Or at least some of them are. This might seem like a relatively insignificant thing, but it's not. Even during the surrender to Liverpool at the weekend, Mourinho's name was being sung from the stands, and a recent poll on fan site "We Ain't Got No History" ended with 75 percent of almost 6,000 respondents voting in their manager's favour.
Some Chelsea fans, usually with a heavy heart, have called for him to go, which is to be expected, but it seems that the majority are on his side for now. There is certainly something to be said for the will of the people to be taken into account.
4. Is there a suitable replacement available?
"Who's next?" is not a question that has troubled Abramovich greatly in the past, as he tended to sack a manager and then consider the consequences, but there is definitely a sense that he is running Chelsea a little more carefully these days. Therefore, the question of who would replace Mourinho is one to consider, and must be one of the factors in the Portuguese still being in his position. Few long-term replacements are available. The ideal scenario would be to appoint a safe pair of hands until this summer, when Pep Guardiola could be available, Antonio Conte might be willing to leave the Italy job after Euro 2016 or Diego Simeone may be tempted away from Atletico Madrid.
But who would take an interim position? In theory Carlo Ancelotti would be the safest pair of hands, but reports differ as to whether he would be willing to take a temporary role. Guus Hiddink is well-liked at Chelsea and has taken exactly this role before in 2009, but he did such a calamitous job with the Dutch national team over the past year that there must be doubts about his candidature, at least.
Beyond those two, who is free and available to drop everything -- and, crucially, be an improvement on Mourinho? Fabio Capello? Brendan Rodgers? Avram Grant again? Without Ancelotti, the pool of potential short-term replacements looks shallow.
5. The cost
There's a relatively pragmatic reason not to be too quick with the ax: Mourinho's contract. He signed a new four-year deal only in August, something that didn't look particularly like a risk at the time, but now would appear to be the major factor in dissuading Abramovich from pulling the trigger. Miguel Delaney reported last week that Mourinho would demand the deal be paid up in full should he be dismissed, meaning it would cost the club around £30 million to sack him, and that's not even factoring in his backroom staff, many of whom would surely leave too.
Chelsea aren't unfamiliar with paying off underperforming managers; Mourinho agreed a significant settlement on the three years remaining on his £6 million salary the first time around, Luiz Felipe Scolari got around £12 million when he went in 2009, a similar fee made its way to Andre Villas-Boas, Roberto Di Matteo was reportedly paid around £9 million after being dismissed. But even though Abramovich has shown little compunction in shelling out cash before, £30 million (and other reports put it even higher than that) is something else for a club still keen on their own self-sufficiency.
Even for someone like Abramovich, the figures involved mean he has to be absolutely certain his decision is correct before pulling the trigger.
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